SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1572

MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488... FOR BLACK HILLS REGION

Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Black Hills region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488...

Valid 060056Z - 060300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Small MCS/supercell will track southeast across the Black
Hills region over the next few hours. Hail and wind remain the
primary risks.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell/MCS is tracking across southeast
MT into northeast WY early this evening. This small complex will
continue propagating southeast across the Black Hills, along/north
of a synoptic boundary that is draped along the southern/western
portions of the higher terrain. Latest diagnostic data suggests a
narrow corridor of instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) extends
across the Black Hills, and 00z sounding from UNR supports this with
40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Environmental conditions remain favorable for
supercells, but some form of a hybrid supercell/MCS complex is
expected to track southeast into the northern portions of the Black
Hills by 02z.

..Darrow.. 07/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45530441 44760241 43880196 43520308 44790535 45530441 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN